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Hello!I am looking for help with this assignment please! I tried to figure it

out but my assignment failed and I can only resubmit once! The

instructor didn’t tell me what failed-or if it all did, but I attached

my attempt as well as the worksheet and rubric for the assignment. Thank

you so much!!!! I truly appreciate it!

This competency will allow you to demonstrate your ability and skill in applying game theory to real world scenarios. Instructions After working for 18 months in your analyst position at G&B Consulting, you are now being considered for a project manager position that would put you in charge of several team members. As part of the interview process, you have been asked to make a presentation to highlight what you think are the most compelling reasons you should get the position. You are to put together a PowerPoint presentation that explains all of the key components that you feel will factor into why you should get the position. What to Submit To complete this assignment, you must first download the word document. Use the questions on the worksheet as your guide for the contents of your presentation. Your step-by-step breakdown of the problems, including explanations and all work shown, should be present within the PowerPoint you create. Use excel for your calculations as that file must also be included in the drop box. Do not submit the Word document with instructions.

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GAME THEORY

APPLICATIONS

PART 1

• The first item you want to highlight is your customer satisfaction record. Over the past 18 months of employment you have

worked with 25 clients, and according to the customer satisfaction surveys all clients are asked to take after their contract

is completed, 22 of them rated you with the highest level of satisfaction. Use this information to find the best predicted

probability of having a new client give the highest level of satisfaction.

• However, having a single satisfied customer is not enough. It is very important to G & B Consulting that they maintain high

ethical standards and continue to receive the highest rating from the Better Business Bureau consistently. In order to

maintain this rating, the company must maintain at least 85% or higher of customers giving you high customer satisfaction

ratings. Internal projections predict that G&B Consulting will serve 60 clients over the next year. If you become the project

manager and use your prior record as an indicator, find the probability that 85% or more of new clients will give the

highest level of customer satisfaction rating. Show all calculations and formulas used. If you use Excel for your calculations

include that along with your submission. Use this information to make a convincing argument that you are a good choice

for the position.

Based on the prior work history 22 people have rated highest level of

customer satisfaction out of the already 25 people. To calculate the

probability of getting a satisfied client I will divide 22 people by the total

25 people.

22

highly rated customer satisfaction

Total probability =

=

= 0.88

25

total number of clients

The probability of getting a satisfied client based on previous work

history is 0.88

The probability of getting 85% of the clients giving a high customer satisfaction rating

will be

85% * 60= 51 clients

Number of success = 51

Number of Trials (n)=60

Probability of success (p)=0.88

Formula: =1-binom.dist(k-1,n,p,true) Actual Formula: =1-binom.dist(511,60,0.88,true)

Probability of getting at least 85% of clients= 0.27

The probability of the clients giving a high satisfactory rating

is 0.27 showing that new clients will also give a high

satisfactory rating making me good for the position.

PART II

The other item you wish to highlight comes from some work done for a local manufacturer. They believed that a competitor was illegally using one

of their patents in their own manufacturing process and were considering litigation. This competitor’s product were directly cutting into the

manufacturer’s profit, so they wanted to prevent the competitor’s product from being made and recoup those lost profits. Of course, the litigation

process is long and costly, and the outcome is not guaranteed and would likely result in a countersuit brought by the competitor. Before continuing

with costly legal counsel, the manufacturer hired G&B Consulting to help them determine their best strategy.

Manufacturer

Competitor

Sue

Don’t Sue

Sue

(5, -5)

(20, -20)

Don’t Sue

(-15, 15)

(-10, 10)

This was potentially a very lucrative contract, and a high profile one too since the manufacturer is one of the biggest employers in the area.

Therefore, several analysts at G&B Consulting, including you, were asked to tackle the problem independently to help ensure the best possible

results. Before compiling a final report to give to the manufacturer, the results were presented to the project lead:

The first solution brought up was given by one of your coworkers. Using the manufacturer’s projections of profits solely, he was able to create the

following payoff matrix where each entry is in millions of dollars annually:

This coworker concluded that the manufacturer should always do the opposite of the competitor chooses making this a strictly competitive game.

Dominant Strategy

Competitor

Manufacturer

Sue

Don’t sue

Sue

(5,-5)

(20,-20)

Don’t sue

(-15,15)

(-10,10)

The dominant strategy for manufacture is sue since 5 is greater than -15

and 20 is greater than -10.

Competitor

Manufacturer

Sue

Don’t sue

Sue

(5,-15)

(20,-20)

Don’t sue

(-15,15)

(-10,10)

The competitor also has a dominant strategy which is sue since -5 is less than 15

and -20 is less than 10

-both manufacturer and competitor have a dominant strategy for this game.

Nash Equilibrium point. (Sue, Sue)

Nash Equilibrium Point

Competitor

Manufacturer

Sue

Don’t sue

Sue

(5,-15)

(20,-20)

Don’t sue

(-15,15)

(-10,10)

Both the companies choose sue (5,5)as the outcome and therefore the Nash

equilibrium.

Competitor would not deviate from considering litigation since if he chooses don’t sue

and the manufacturer still sues, the manufacturer will increase the costs by $5million.

The best thing for both manufacturer and competitor is to sue therefore (sue, sue) is

the Nash equilibrium point.

The Optimum Strategy

The expected value of either choice is the same

ES=ED

ES=-5p+15(1-p)=15-20p

ED=-20p+10(1-p)=10-30p

15-20p=10-30p

P=1/2

The Manufacturer choice to sue is 50% as well as the competitor.

I do not agree with the co-workers results that the manufacturer will

enjoy the profits solely. This is because neither of the firms would want

to change opinion as they are already getting same profits from the

litigation and it’s not only the manufacturer will benefit since the

outcome is (sue, sue)

.

PART III

The second solution was brought by a different coworker. She also created a payoff matrix for the scenario

but did some independent research to estimate the competitor’s profits in each outcome independent of

the manufacturer’s profits and came up with the following payoff matrix, again, the values represent

millions of dollars in annual profits.

Manufacturer

Competitor

Sue

Don’t Sue

Sue

(5, -5)

(20, 10)

Don’t Sue

(10, 20)

(15, 15)

This coworker concludes that under these circumstances, the manufacturer should sue 50% of the time

and not sue the other 50% of the time, and they should expect their competitor to do the same.

Competitor

Manufacturer

Sue

Don’t sue

Sue

(5,-5)

(20,10)

Don’t sue

(10,20)

(15,15)

The competitor sues the manufacturer will not sue

If the manufacturer sues the competitor will not sue

This means that both firms’ decisions are dependent on

each other and therefore neither of the firms has

dominant strategy.

The optimum strategy for manufacturer

The expected value of either choice is the same

ES=ED

ES=-5p+20(1-p)=20-25p

ED=10p+15(1-p)=15-15p

20-25p=15-5p

P=1/4

The Manufacturer should sue 25% and don’t sue 75%

Optimum strategy for competitor

Expected value of either choice is again the same:

ES=ED

EA=5q+20(1-q) = 20-15q

EB=10q+15(1-q) = 15-5q

Next set the two expected values and solve for q to find competitor optimal strategy.

20-15q= 15-5q

5=10q

1/2=q

The Competitor should sue 50% of the time and don’t sue 50% of the time

I disagree with the co-workers recommendation in accordance

with the results. As it is only the Competitor that should sue 50%

of the time and don’t sue 50% of the time while the

Manufacturer should only sue 25% of the time and don’t sue

75% of the time.

PART IV

You present your own solution that is based on a non-simultaneous game where the

manufacturer first has to decide whether or not they wish to pursue litigation. If they do so

choose, then their competitor will also have to decide if the wish to file a counter-suit. You

utilized the same payoff matrix that the second coworker provided that contains information

about both companies’ projected profits

Manufacturer

Sue

Sue

Don’t Sue

Competitor

Competitor

Sue

Don’t Due

In this scenario the non credible threat will be don’t sue this is because

both outcome for the clients is same and if the manufacturer sues the

competitor will also sue.

Manufacturer

Sue

Sue

Don’t Sue

Competitor

Competitor

Sue

Don’t Due

The first step will be eliminating the don’t sue by the competitor since it is dependent

on the manufacturer choice to sue.

Manufacturer

Sue

Sue

Don’t Sue

Competitor

Competitor

Sue

Don’t Due

After the competitor choice to sue , the manufacturer can maximize its payoff . the result is an

equilibrium found by backward induction of manufacturer choice to sue and the competitor

also to sue.

The optimal strategy would be the competitor sue and the manufacture sues.

Deliverable 07 – Worksheet

Part 1

The first item you want to highlight is your customer satisfaction record. Over the past 18

months of employment you have worked with 25 clients, and according to the customer

satisfaction surveys all clients are asked to take after their contract is completed, 22 of them

rated you with the highest level of satisfaction. Use this information to find the best predicted

probability of having a new client give the highest level of satisfaction.

However, having a single satisfied customer is not enough. It is very important to G & B

Consulting that they maintain high ethical standards and continue to receive the highest rating

from the Better Business Bureau consistently. In order to maintain this rating, the company

must maintain at least 85% or higher of customers giving you high customer satisfaction

ratings. Internal projections predict that G&B Consulting will serve 60 clients over the next

year. If you become the project manager and use your prior record as an indicator, find the

probability that 85% or more of new clients will give the highest level of customer satisfaction

rating. Show all calculations and formulas used. If you use Excel for your calculations include

that along with your submission. Use this information to make a convincing argument that you

are a good choice for the position.

Slide 1

•

•

Calculate the probability of getting a satisfied client based off of your prior work

history at G& B Consulting. Show all work.

Explain how you found your solution.

Slide 2

•

•

Using your prior work history, calculate the probability of getting at least 85% of

clients giving you high customer satisfaction ratings.

Explain how you found your solution.

Slide 3

•

Interpret your results from slide 2 and use them to make an argument on why

you would be good for the position.

Part 2

The other item you wish to highlight comes from some work done for a local manufacturer.

They believed that a competitor was illegally using one of their patents in their own

manufacturing process and were considering litigation. This competitor’s product were directly

cutting into the manufacturer’s profit, so they wanted to prevent the competitor’s product from

being made and recoup those lost profits. Of course, the litigation process is long and costly,

and the outcome is not guaranteed and would likely result in a countersuit brought by the

competitor. Before continuing with costly legal counsel, the manufacturer hired G&B

Consulting to help them determine their best strategy.

This was potentially a very lucrative contract, and a high profile one too since the manufacturer

is one of the biggest employers in the area. Therefore, several analysts at G&B Consulting,

including you, were asked to tackle the problem independently to help ensure the best possible

results. Before compiling a final report to give to the manufacturer, the results were presented

to the project lead:

The

first

Manufacturer

Competitor

Sue

Don’t Sue

Sue

(5, -5)

(20, -20)

Don’t Sue

(-15, 15)

(-10, 10)

solution brought up was given by one of your coworkers. Using the manufacturer’s projections

of profits solely, he was able to create the following payoff matrix where each entry is in

millions of dollars annually:

This coworker concluded that the manufacturer should always do the opposite of the

competitor chooses making this a strictly competitive game.

Slide 4

•

•

Using the payoff matrix shown above, determine if the manufacturer has a

dominant strategy. Show and explain all steps.

Using the payoff matrix shown above, determine if the competitor has a

dominant strategy. Show and explain all steps.

Slide 5

•

•

Find all Nash equilibrium points. Show and explain all steps.

Identify the optimum strategy of the game.

Slide 6

•

Do your results match those of your coworkers? Explain why you agree or

disagree

Part 3

Competitor

Manufacturer

The

Sue

Don’t Sue

Sue

(5, -5)

(20, 10)

Don’t Sue

(10, 20)

(15, 15)

second solution was brought by a different coworker. She also created a payoff matrix for the

scenario but did some independent research to estimate the competitor’s profits in each

outcome independent of the manufacturer’s profits and came up with the following payoff

matrix, again, the values represent millions of dollars in annual profits.

This coworker concludes that under these circumstances, the manufacturer should sue 50% of

the time and not sue the other 50% of the time, and they should expect their competitor to do

the same.

Slide 7

•

Use the mixed strategy algorithm to find the optimum strategy for the

manufacturer. Show all of your steps.

Slide 8

•

Use the mixed strategy algorithm to find the optimum strategy for the

competitor. Show all of your steps.

Slide 9

•

Do your results match those of your coworker’s? Explain why you agree or

disagree.

Part 4

You present your own solution that is based on a non-simultaneous game where the

manufacturer first has to decide whether or not they wish to pursue litigation. If they do so

choose, then their competitor will also have to decide if the wish to file a counter-suit. You

utilized the same payoff matrix that the second coworker provided that contains information

about both companies’ projected profits

Slide 10

•

•

Create the game tree for this scenario, exclude any non-credible threats.

Explain how you identified the non-credible threat.

Slide 10

•

Perform the first step of backwards induction. Shown and explain your work.

Slide 11

•

Perform the second step of backwards induction. Show and explain all your

work.

Slide 12

•

Identify the optimum strategy for the game.

Grading Rubric

F.

F

с

B

A

0

1

2

3

4

No

No Pass

Competence

Proficiency

Mastery

Pass

Not

Did not correctly solve a

Correctly solved a majority of the

Correctly solved almost all

All problems are

Submitted majority of the problems or

problems.

the problems.

solved correctly.

at least one problem not

completed.

Not

Very few steps are

Fairly complete and detailed

Mostly complete and

Complete and detailed

Submitted provided to explain how to

steps are provided to explain

detailed steps are provided

steps are provided to

solve the problem OR the

how to solve the problem OR the to explain how to solve the

explain how to solve

steps provided have

steps provided have some

problem.

the problem.

several errors.

errors.

Not

Explanations generally lack

Explanations demonstrate a

Explanations demonstrate

Explanations

Submitted

a basic understanding of

basic understanding of most of

a proficient understanding

demonstrate a mastery

the concepts or lack of

the concepts and terminology,

of most of the concepts

of understanding of the

proper terminology

but some explanations may be

and terminology, but with

concepts and

incomplete or incorrect.

small errors.

terminology

Not

The majority of

The majority of mathematical

Almost all mathematical

All mathematical

Submitted

mathematical expressions

expressions and any graphs or

expressions and any

expressions and any

and any graphs or tables

tables are properly formatted.

graphs or tables are

graphs or tables are

are not properly formatted

properly formatted.

properly formatted.

OR some are not present.

Purchase answer to see full

attachment

Tags:

Customer satisfaction ratings

customer satisfaction rate

Probability Mathematics

highest level of satisfaction

total number of clients

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