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A six-sided die has four green and two red faces and is balanced so that each face is equally likely to
come up. The die will be rolled several times. You must choose one of the following three sequences of
colors; you will win£25 if the first rolls of the die give the sequence that you have chosen.
Without making any calculations, explain which sequence you choose. (In a psychological
experiment,63% of 260 students who had not studied probability chose the second sequence. This is
evidence that our intuitive understanding of probability is not very accurate. This and other similar
experiments are reported by A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The
conjunction fallacy in probability judgment, Psychological Review90(1983), pp. 293–315.)
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theory of probability
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